Models

Church growth models have been developed with system dynamics and implemented in Stella 9.1 produced by ISEE Systems. It is hoped to make as many as possible available on this website so that people can try simulations for themselves. The web-based versions are hosted by Forio Simulate, from whom the original Stella 9.1 model is also available.

• Limited Enthusiasm Model - This is the equivalent of the model in Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth, and is used in all the listed publications.
• Discipleship Model - This is the first model developed as part of the Cymru Institute for Contemporary Christianity. This is level 1 of the model - measuring discipleship.
• Limited Enthusiasm Model with Migration. A variation on the published model showing the effect of a church in a growing community. The community could be growing through inward migration or through the church extending its influence, perhaps by church planting or wider exposure.
• Limited Enthusiasm with Births Deaths and Reversion. This is the model described in the 2005 paper and that has been used to investigate the status of denominations with regard to extinction, survival or revival.
  • Church of England 1979-1998, as published in Hayward 2005. The best fit to Christian Research data from that period.
  • New Churches 1990-2000, as published in Hayward 2005. The best fit to Christian Research data from that period.

Models - Technical Details