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Church Growth Modelling

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Model Construction

Limited Enthusiasm

The model of short-term revival growth, based on the analogy with the spread of a disease.


The limited enthusiasm model with births, deaths, reversion & secularisation.


Allows for enthusiasts to be made from existing inactive believers.

Spiritual Life

Enthusiasts can build the spiritual life of the church, which in turn improves their effectiveness


Adding migration investigates revival in growing communities


Separating attendance from membership to investigate their correlation with growth and decline.

Aging and Church Decline

Aging effects the Demographics model if the church is in steep decline. Thus corrections are needed.

Model Results

Principles of Revival Growth

1904-5 Welsh Revival

Nagaland Revival

Principles of Church Growth

Principles of Church Decline

Church of England 2001-2012

Southern Baptist 1980-2012

Growth Through Renewal

Growth Through Spiritual Life

Simulate Online

Limited Enthusiasm with Demographics

Church of England 1979-1998

UK New Churches 1990-2000

Limited Enthusiasm Results

Enthusiasts are the subset of the church who are active in the conversion of unbelievers. They are "infected" with religion and pass it on to their friends, family and contacts. The result is the religion spreads like a disease, and the church grows.

In the basic model new converts are the primary source of enthusiasts because they have the most contacts with unbelievers. Extended models include births as a source of believe

The Results

Revival Principles
Understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease.
Revival growth threshold
Long Term Growth
Demographics with limited enthusiasm.
Equilibrium, revival threshold, delayed growth.
Long Term Decline
Demographics with limited enthusiasm.
Extinction threshold, low reproduction and child loss.
Aging & Church Decline
What is the pattern of decline when a church is also aging.
Models to illustrate how aging gives straight line decline.
Limited enthusiasm with inactive believers renewed.
Renewal not evangelism is key to church growth. Critical mass.
spiritual life
Spiritual Life
Limited enthusiasm with spiritual life of church.
Enhanced Growth, critical mass.
Application to 1904/5 Welsh Revival.
Limited enthusiasm and membership.
Growth, decline, delays and the membership attendance gap.
Limited enthusiasm with migration.
Repeated, endemic and enhanced revival growth.

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Church Growth Modelling