Church Growth Models
Outline of Church Growth Models Limited Enthusiasm Model Births, Deaths & Reversion  Renewal Unlimited Enthusiasm    Details of Models Limited Enthusiasm  Births, Deaths & Reversion  Renewal   Details of Results Summary of Results Short Term Revival  Long Term Growth Long Term Decline Growth via Renewal   References & Bibliography  Mathematics of Church Growth Church Growth Revival  System Dynamics  Sociology of Religion Epidemics Social Diffusion   Publications Articles Models for Download	Limited Enthusiasm Model In this model church growth comes only through the conversion of unbelievers. There are three fundamental assumptions: Conversions result from the contact between unbelievers who gets converted and "enthusiast's - the subset of the church active in spreading the faith. After a length of time the enthusiasts lose their effectiveness and become inactive believers playing no part in the spread of the faith. Some of the new converts become enthusiasts - the only way enthusiasts are made in this model. Thus there are three categories of people: unbelievers, enthusiasts (or active believers) and inactive believers. These correspond to the susceptibles, infected and removed categories in the spread of a disease. It assumed believers are all church members and vice versa. The main result is that there is a threshold for rapid revival-type growth to occur. This threshold depends on the enthusiast's individual effectiveness only. If the proportion of unbelievers exceeds this threshold then growth of the church explodes until that unbelieving proportion falls below the threshold, after which growth slows down. The growth stops before the whole population is converted. It stops because there is insufficient effectiveness not because there are no more unbelievers. If only part of the church are enthusiasts spreading the faith - and they eventually lose their effectiveness, then the church fails to convert all of society. Church growth is limited because enthusiasm is limited in time. More ... Return to Top General Limited Enthusiasm Model with Births Deaths and Reversion For long term behaviour the growth of the church additional processes are required: Deaths: the deaths of church members Births: additions through births of children to existing church members, who after some period in within the church because of their parents become believers themselves. If some children do not stay with the church then the growth through births does not compensate the losses through death. This is child loss from the church. Reversion: Adult believers who leave the church, for whatever reason, and effectively become unbelievers again, as far as their church attendance is concerned. In addition to the threshold of revival growth there is also a lower threshold of extinction. This threshold depends on the individuals' effectiveness as well as on the losses of children and reversion. If the proportion of unbelievers in society is below this threshold then the church will eventfully become extinct. More ... Return to Top Renewal Model The general model is extended to allow enthusiasts to re-enthuse exisiting believers - the renewal process. Thus the church no longer relies on new converts as its sole source of new enthusiasts. The renewal rate may be different from the reproduction rate among new converts. The most important result is that renewal can make up for an inadequate reproduction potential, allowing a church to avoid extinction, or even see revival, provided there is a critical mass of enthusiasts. More... Unlimited Enthusiasm Model This is the situation where all believers are enthusiasts passing on the faith. Without births, deaths and reversion such a church would eventually see the whole of society converted. With these losses the church fails to convert all of society. Thus reversion and child loss prevent the church from converting the whole of society even if all believer recruit indefinitely. This model is unrealistic and, unlike the limited enthusiasm model, rarely fits church attendance data.