Revival Through Renewal Results of the Renewal Model
Principles Established Renewal can Avoid Extinction Renewal & Revival Delayed Growth Small things - Big Difference Critical Mass   Details of Models Limited Enthusiasm  Births, Deaths & Reversion  Renewal   Details of Results Summary of Results Short Term Revival  Long Term Growth Long Term Decline Growth via Renewal   References & Bibliography  Mathematics of Church Growth Church Growth Revival System Dynamics  Sociology of Religion Epidemics  Social Diffusion Publications Articles Models for Download	Principles Established Renewal Can Avoid Extinction It was established in the general church growth model that if the reproduction potential of the enthusiasts was below the extinction threshold then the church would eventually disappear through its losses. Such a church was not reproducing enthusiasts well enough for them to survive, a situation made harder by losses. To rectify the situation the church would either have to stem losses (though this may not be enough) or increase its reproduction potential. However the renewal model shows there is a third option - renew existing believers and make them enthusiasts, perhaps for the first time. Figure 1 shows a church with a hopelessly inadequate reproduction potential declining fast (curve 2). The reproduction potential is so poor even stemming losses would not avoid extinction. Introducing renewal (curve 1) shows the church growing steadily, even though the reproduction potential from new converts is still inadequate. The extra supply of enthusiasts from existing church members, not only gives growth in the pool of enthusiasts, but provides enough converts for growth. For many churches renewal - brining their members to life again - is a better option than trying to make their new converts better evangelists.   Figure 1 Return to Top Renewal Can Promote Revival Growth Renewal can also turn moderate growth into revival growth. The church in figure 2 is more or less in equilibrium (curve 2)- its reproduction potential over the extinction threshold, but under the revival growth threshold. Introducing renewal turns this situation into dramatic growth (curve 1) even though the reproduction potential from converts is unchanged. The church stabilises at a much higher equilibrium value. Often revivals come from renewal movements within churches - the reviving work starting among existing believers first. Figure 2 Return to Top Revival Growth from Renewal may be Delayed Although renewal can lead to revival growth it may be a long time before rapid growth starts, perhaps more than a generation. Figure 3 shows a church with enough renewal to make up for an inadequate reproduction potential. Although there is a small amount of growth for a hundred years there is not of revival standards. However the growth then speeds up and becomes dramatic and sudden - revival growth. Yet there has been no change in parameters. The same work of God in the individual has moved from slow growth to revival growth. Numerically the revival started after 50 years, yet spiritually it been going all the time. Figure 3 Clearly renewal movements should not be dismissed just because they do not see immediate growth in the church. Methodism started as a renewal movement within the Church of England in the 1730's. Although there were numerous outbreak of revival during that century the size of methodism, and the rest of the Christian church was still moderate by the end of the century. The revival had not produced dramatic growth. Most of the growth occurred in the first 50 years of the 19th century, well after the first generation had gone. Revivals, especially those that come from renewal movements, can start small. It is possible that the renewal movements in the UK, that started in the late 1960's may yet lead to substantial growth. Although they have led to growth in the independent and house churches, and to renewed churches within denominations, there is as yet little impact on the total church attendance. However the rapid growth may yet happen and even rapid revival growth, as a result of these movements. There are already signs of the whole church growing again in the London area where these types of churches are strongest. Return to Top Small Things Make a Big Difference A small change in the amount of renewal in the church not only can avoid extinction, or bring revival growth, but can make a large change in the final outcome of the church. This is especially true when the reproduction potential is inadequate and the church is using renewal to make up for its lack of enthusiasts. To quote The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell: "small things make a big difference". Figure 4 shows a church where the renewal potential is increased by less than 1%. What was a slow extinction is changed into slow growth followed by a rapid revival. The difference between a church extinct, and a church over 50% of the community. Small and persistent renewal movements should not be despised they could just be enough to tip the church into dramatic growth. Figure 4 Return to Top Critical Mass When renewal is used to make up for an inadequate reproduction potential there is no guarantee that a church will be turned from decline to growth. in addition to having renewal it must also be of a sufficient size, and have sufficient enthusiasts, to tip into growth. For given reproduction and renewal potentials, there a critical masses of believers, and enthusiasts, needed for growth to occur. Figure 5 shows the critical mass for enthusiasts in a church. The lower three curves have the initial number of enthusiasts under the critical mass of enthusiasts. The upper three the initial value is above. Clearly only those with a sufficient number of enthusiasts to start with see the growth. A similar effect occurs in the number of believers in the church. Figure 5 Thus renewal is more effective if enthusiasts are concentrated together in one place. Likewise renewal is more effective in larger churches, although this must be balanced against possible increased opposition - not included in the renewal model. Again, for a small change in the number enthusiasts, just taking it above the critical mass, there is a huge change in outcome in the church. A small increase in enthusiasts, or church size Return to Top