Renewal Model General Limited Enthusiasm Model With Renewal
Renewal Assumptions Summary   Question How do believers get renewed?   Technical Details for the Renewal Model Systems Dynamics Model Parameters Results   Details of Models Limited Enthusiasm  Births, Deaths & Reversion  Renewal   Details of Results Summary of Results Short Term Revival  Long Term Growth Long Term Decline Growth via Renewal   References & Bibliography  Mathematics of Church Growth Church Growth Revival  System Dynamics  Sociology of Religion Epidemics  Social Diffusion Publications Articles Models for Download	Renewal Assumption One of the central assumptions of the limited enthusiasm model of church growth is that the only source of new enthusiasts are among the new converts. This was argued on the grounds that as new believers get integrated into church life they lose their non-Christian friends and gain those within church. Thus their network of potential converts diminishes. Generally this process appears to take about 2 years. However this loss of non-Christian contacts is not true for all Christians, even if it is only contact with unbelieving family members. Instead other mechanisms bring about a loss of effectiveness in influencing unbelievers. They new Christian can become so caught up in church life they forget about evangelism or even their zeal for their faith declines. Another factor is that the greatest influence a new believers has is when there has been a sudden change in their lifestyle. Once their friends and family get used the convert's changed life they are less likely to be interested. Slow change does not have the same impact as sudden change. The mechanism just mentioned leave open the possibility that the effectiveness of the believer could be renewed again, perhaps by a sudden work of the Holy Spirit, influenced by others within the church who are experiencing similar effects on their lives. provided they still have some network of unbelievers to influence the inactive believer has now become active again. In the Christian church this is often called Renewal. Renewal enables inactive believers to become enthusiasts, either again, or even for the first time. Thus the renewal assumption is that inactive believers can be made enthusiasts. In addition it will be assumed that the enthusiasts made by this mechanism have the same reproduction potential as those who are converts. However the renewal potential, measuring the effectiveness of an enthusiast on believers need not be the same as the reproduction potential, which measures their effectiveness of unbelievers. Return to Top Summary of the Renewal Model The renewal assumptions modifies the existing general limited enthusiasm model, by adding one casual link from inactive believers to enthusiasts. See page on general model for definition of terms. Return to Top How do Believers get Renewed? There are a number of ways believers can be renewed. They are quoted without any theological critique. 1 The believer sees a spiritual life in other Christians far more appealing than their own. Their dissatisfaction with their spiritual state leads them to seek Jesus Christ and ask for such a quality of life. That quality of life becomes noticeable to others. 2 The believer comes into contact with organisations who promote a more vibrant form of Christianity "deeper life", "spirit filled" etc, or a course such as "Alpha". Perhaps they are taken by friends to conventions such as Spring Harvest, or New Wine. The subsequent life changes, or even identity with such organisations, has impact on their unbelieving friends. 3 Some of the "believers" were not truly converted in the first place. Although they belong to the church they may have joined for social reasons rather than spiritual ones. Their contact with enthusiasts within their church has become the means of their conversion. 4 The "renewal" may be a burden for the state of the lost impressed on them by some other Christian, launching the believer into evangelistic activity. This may come through participation in evangelistic training courses, such as "Evangelism Explosion". Return to Top Systems Dynamics Model for the Renewal Model Any system dynamics viewing this site might be interested in the Stella version of the limited enthusiasms model. This model is to be presented at the annual meeting of the Operational research Society in September 2004, and is being written up for publication. Return to Top Parameters 1 The reproduction potential. This is the number of unbelievers converted and made enthusiasts through one existing active believer (enthusiast). It measures how much an enthusiast can "reproduce" themselves out of the pool of unbelievers. It is composed of two independent parameters: The potential number of people converted through one active believer during their enthusiastic phase - the conversion potential. The fraction who become active believers on conversion rather than inactive. 2 The renewal potential. The influence of renewal increases as the church gets larger thus increasing the network of influence. This is called the crowd model in epidemiology However there comes a size of church where the size of the network cannot get bigger as there are only so many contacts a person can hold down. This is the fixed contacts model, the same model used for the reproduction potential. The cut-off at which the network saturates is also a parameter. 3 The duration of the enthusiastic phase. 4 The fraction of children of inactive believers who leave the church before an adult commitment. 5 Likewise the fraction of children of active believers (enthusiasts) who leave the church. 6 The fraction of children of active believers who also become active in recruitment. 7 The rates at which adult believers, both active and inactive leave the church. 8 The average length of time a believer who has left the church remains hardened to reconversion or restitution. Return to Top Results of the Renewal Model It is possible for a church with an inadequate reproduction potential to see growth if there is sufficient renewal. However such a recovery depends on there being a critical mass of church size and a critical mass of enthusiasts. Thus even a church which would have been under the extinction threshold can see revival growth if there is sufficient renewal. Renewal not evangelism is the key to church growth. More details..