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Results
Summary
Results Summary
Growth Determined by Quality not Quantity of Enthusiasts
Enthusiasts are the believers who make contact with, or attract, unbelievers so that those unbelievers are converted. They are usually a small proportion of the church. Church growth is driven by such enthusiasts and it is their quality rather than their quantity that determines the ultimate size of the church. It is not the number of enthusiasts but their ability to reproduce themselves (reproduction potential) that will determine how large the church becomes. However if renewal is present then the number of enthusiasts initially may be critical (see below).
Reproduction Potential
This is how many enthusiasts one enthusiast could potentially make, if all the population were unbelievers. It is not how many converts they make that determines long-term growth but how many enthusiasts who will go on to make more enthusiasts. Making converts who are not enthusiasts will enhance short-term growth, but will not guarantee long-term growth or the survival of the church.
Renewal, not Evangelistic Methods, is the Key To Church Growth
In this context "renewal" means a spiritual change in a person so that they become spiritually infectious. They would be enthusiasts in this model. They are used to attract unbelievers who become converted and spiritually infectious themselves. "Evangelistic methods" are methods or programs that attempt to see people converted and become church members, whether by personal contact or good marketing. "Renewal" concentrates on the change in the person, "evangelistic methods" on the addition of numbers. Put another way the spiritual life of the church has more effect on growth than the quality of the outreach methods.
If the church sees existing believers being renewed then that will be an additional source of enthusiasts. Revival often starts with the renewal of believers and then spreads to unbelievers. Renewal can make up for an inadequate reproduction potential, helping a church to avoid extinction or even see revival growth, provided there is a critical mass of enthusiasts.
Extinction
If the reproduction potential is under the extinction threshold the church will eventually become extinct. The extinction threshold is determined by the losses from the church: adults who leave, and children of believers who don't go on to be believers.
Church Decline Primarily Caused By Lack of Conversions
Both growing and declining churches in the UK have similar loss rates and thus similar extinction thresholds. The declining churches decline because their reproduction potential is too low. Their enthusiasts and not making enough enthusiasts, or converts. Although lowering the loss rates may prevent some churches from going extinct, their decline cannot be halted without improving the reproduction potential of their enthusiasts. The same is true for USA churches.
Revival Growth
If the reproduction potential is over the revival-growth threshold then the church will see rapid growth with the numbers of enthusiasts increasing. The revival growth threshold is determined by the loss rates and the number of unbelievers. Thus, as people get converted the revival growth threshold gets higher and the growth slows down and halts short of all people being converted.
Revival
A revival is a work of the Holy Spirit in people, transforming them into the likeness of Christ and bring them into a powerful experience of the presence of God. Clearly when such an outpouring of the Spirit happens revival growth follows. Revival growth is no guarantee a revival is taking place. If a church is showing revival growth, then to determine if it really is a revival the lives of the people involved and their churches need to be examined. Is God really in their midst? Is there evidence of the work of the Spirit? As revivals take place with different intensities, then comparing numbers or experiences with past revivals may not be helpful.
Churches in Revival Growth
There are many national churches around the world in revival growth, especially in Asia, Africa and South America. In the UK the "New Church" streams are in revival-growth as, to a lesser extent, are the Baptist churches. Likewise in the USA the Pentecostal and New Paradigm churches are in revival growth. If God is really in their midst and people are being genuinely converted then there is serious case for saying that a revival is taking place.
Large Scale Growth May Start Slow
If the church is a small proportion of society then even with a high reproduction potential early growth will be slow. Thus if a church is small but growing slowly it could well turn into much larger and more noticeable growth later. It all depends on the reproduction potential.
Revivals May End For Lack of Enthusiasts
Revival Growth eventually slows when there are insufficient unbelievers to turn into enthusiasts. Thus a revival could slow and stop simply because the pool of unbelievers has shrunk to the point that it cannot sustain the number of enthusiasts through new converts. If however more attention were given to renewing the enthusiasm of existing believers then the revival may be sustained.
The worst thing that can be done in a revival is to concentrate so much on reaching unbelievers that people forget the renewal of existing believers, including themselves. Such a revival will burn out for lack of enthusiasts.
Renewal Can Avoid Extinction and Bring Revival
A church with insufficient reproduction potential for survival or revival can achieve both through renewing inactive believers. That is the church makes enthusiasts out of existing believers. Further details on the renewal results page.
A Critical Mass of Enthusiasts in Needed if Renewal Generates Revival
If sufficient enthusiasts are generated through conversion to give revival growth then that growth does not depend on the initial number of enthusiasts. However if renewal is needed to help generate enough enthusiasts then a critical mass of enthusiasts is needed to see revival growth. Further details on the renewal results page.
Discipleship Results
For a growing church to generate a healthy balance of new converts and mature, discipled believers then attention needs to be paid to the proportion that progress through the discipleship process and not just measure how many mature believers it has. Further details are found on the Discipleship model results page.