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Short
Term Revival - Results of the Limited Enthusiasm Model
| Principles Established |
| Extent of Growth |
| Threshold of Revival Type Growth |
| S-Shaped Growth |
| Peak |
| Applications |
| Wales 1904-5 |
| Nagaland 1976-84 |
| Details of Models |
| Limited Enthusiasm |
| Births, Deaths & Reversion |
| Renewal |
|
|
| Details of Results |
| Summary of Results |
| Short Term Revival |
| Long Term Growth |
| Long Term Decline |
| Growth via Renewal |
| References & Bibliography |
| Mathematics of Church Growth |
| Church Growth |
| Revival |
| System Dynamics |
| Sociology of Religion |
| Epidemics |
| Social Diffusion |
| Publications |
| Articles |
| Models for Download |
Short term growth in the Limited Enthusiasm Model is typical of the church attendance and membership patterns during a revival
Principles
Established
Principles Established
Extent of Growth
Not all the the population is converted as a result of the revival. This may not come as a surprise but this failure to convert the whole population is not the result of spiritual resistance in the unbelievers. It comes because not all the unbelievers have been contacted and ultimately converted before the revival has run out. The revival hasn't stopped for a lack of unbelievers to contact, but because there was insufficient enthusiasm (reproduction potential) in the active believers to sustain the revival as the number of unbelievers ( and hence contacts) fell.
A revival will certainly cease if God withdraws his blessing maybe because of sin in his people. However this is not necessarily the reason why one ends. It may have ceased because it did not have sufficient momentum in the first place to reach the dwindling pool of unbelievers. To counter this dynamical reason for revivals ceasing those active in contacting unbelievers need to increase their proportion of contacts with unbelievers rather than spend time with existing believers or new converts. Do not tie gifted evangelisers up with work that does not bring them into contact with new unbelievers!
Threshold of Revival-Type Growth
If the number, or fraction, of unbelievers exceeds a threshold determined by the reproduction potential. This is a measuring of how many an enthusiast could see converted and made enthusiasts. That is the enthusiasts ability to reproduce themselves! The growth, if that threshold is exceeded, is rapid, following the pattern of figure 1 .
The threshold is often called a "Tipping Point".
The reproduction potential depends on the potential number converted, and the fraction of those converts who become enthusiasts on their conversion.
If the initial fraction of unbelievers, is under this threshold no such rapid, or revival-type, growth occurs. The exact relationship was shown in Hayward (1999; 2000) to be:
Thus increasing the potential number converted, or the fraction who become active, will lower this threshold, making revival-type growth possible.
Note the following:
- The length of the enthusiastic phase does not affect the threshold or the size of the growth, only how long it takes for growth to occur.
- The threshold of revival-type growth does not depend on the number of enthusiasts. However small the number of enthusiasts, the growth will occur eventually, it just takes longer to do so. Thus revival can start with a small number of enthusiasts, provided their reproduction potential (enthusiasm) is high enough.
S-Shaped Growth
The growth in the total number of the church follows an S-shaped curve, curve 1 in figure 2:
This S-shaped growth is typical of the type of growth seen in revivals, (or in the spread of innovations such as video players or mobile phones for that matter). A point comes when the growth of the church explodes because there are so many enthusiasts whose contacts are resulting in the conversion of unbelievers, many of whom also become enthusiasts.
The bulk of the conversions occur in the middle period of the growth.
Thus early on in the growth there are few contacts, and thus few conversions, because the percentage of unbelievers is so small. Thus revivals often have a slow start, especially if the church is a small proportion of society to begin with. Because growth is the main factor through which revivals are first noticed it can mean that a revival can be underway some time before it comes to the attention of the population at large.
Peak
The peak in the number of enthusiasts in the church occurs when only half the growth has taken place. Thus measures of church growth alone may mask the fact that the means of the growth is already waning. A knowledge of the number of enthusiasts may give advance warning that action is needed to stem future decline.
The peak in the percentage of enthusiasts in the church occurs before the growth in the church has reached the halfway point (figure 2). If the percentage of enthusiasts in the church is reflected in the enthusiastic "feel" of the church then the church may give the impression of its life tailing off even though much of the conversions are still to come.
Applications
Applications
Wales 1904-5
In 1904 the combined total membership for Welsh churches stood at 48.94% of the total population and rose to 53.43% by the end of 1905. The bulk of the 100,000 converts came in a period of about 12 months (see Hayward 1999) . Simulations show that the reproduction potential for each active believer (enthusiast) was just over 2. If all converts had also become enthusiasts then the potential number converted by each enthusiasts was also 2 with the duration of the enthusiastic phase about 1 week.
Note the actual number converted was thus 1 per enthusiast, as about 50% of the people they met were already converted. One enthusiast only needed to bring one other person to a meeting where they also became converted and an enthusiast! Figure 3 show such a simulation where the numbers are measured as a fraction of the total adult population of Wales:
It is not possible to tell how many of the converts also became enthusiasts. If it was only 10% then the conversion potential would have to be much higher, around 18 converts per enthusiast, and the enthusiastic phase longer, about 1 month (see Hayward 2000).
In reality these parameters could vary widely for different active believers, with the model yielding their average value.
Further details of the calculations are given in the explanatory notes including a breakdown of the figures associated with each denomination over the period.
Nagaland 1976-82
Edwin Orr (2000) describes a revival in Nagaland India where the Baptist church rose from 130,000 in 1976 to about 200,000 in 1982. A simulation of the model again shows a reproduction potential of around 1.5 with a longer enthusiastic period than the Welsh revival, of around 1 month, assuming all converts became active (Hayward 2001). The same number of converts per believer over a longer period of time extends the length of the revival.
Figure 4 shows the reproduction potential above the threshold at the start of the revival. Once a sufficient number of unbelievers are converted the threshold has has risen above the reproduction potential and the revival growth slows down. The threshold is now too high for that value of the reproduction potential to sustain the revival. Not enough contacts are with the remaining unbelievers. Growth generally stops when the reproduction potential is as far below the threshold as it started above.
