|
Limited Enthusiam Model
Hayward (1999, 2000, March 2002) Hypotheses
- The
faith is largely spread through enthusiasts, or "active"
believers. These are active in recruitment distinguishing them
from "inactive" believers who play little role in recruitment.
- Most
conversion growth comes from contact between an enthusiast and
an unbeliever. The numbers converted being proportional to the
numbers of both.
- The
enthusiastic phase of a believer only lasts a certain length
of time, after which they become inactive.
- Not all new converts are enthusiasts. Some are inactive immediately (March 2002).
- The number of new enthusiasts (not just converts) made by one enthusiast during their enthusiastic phase is called their reproduction potential.
Results
- There
is a threshold over which large scale "revival-type"
growth occurs. This depends on the number of unbelievers.
- The
number of enthusiasts does not affect whether such substantial
growth occurs. If there are smaller number enthusiasts the same
growth occurs over as longer period.
- The
threshold depends on the number of people converted per enthusiast. Thus
it is the "amount of enthusiasm" that governs the growth.
- Growth
will end because the church runs out of enthusiasts, not
because the number of unbelievers runs out. As people are converted
enthusiasts are less likely to meet unconverted people, leading
to a failure to make sufficient enthusiasts.
- It
is more beneficial for growth to increase the effectiveness
of enthusiasts than to increase their numbers. A small number
of effective evangelisers are better than a large number of less
effective ones.
- When
the population of a church is small compared to the surrounding
unbelieving society it can be a long time before a revival among
believers can see significant growth in the church
- In
summary it is the spiritual vitality of the enthusiasts that
drives the growth of the church. More life gives more growth,
provided that life is directed into contact with unbelievers.
Read
Acts 2:42-47 & 4:12-16 for a Biblical understanding of this
principle.
- Go
to Summary of Results for more.
Return to Top
Limited Enthusiasm Model with Births, Deaths, and Reversion
This model is an extension of the limited enthusiasm model above. Hayward (Nov 2002, 2005, Micro Macro 2007-9)
Additional Hypotheses
- Believers and unbelievers die at the same constant rate.
- Children of believers and unbelievers are born at the same rate.
- All the children of unbelievers start as unbelievers.
- Some of the children of believers become believers by birth, and some of those becomes enthusiasts.
- The unbelievers are split into those open to conversion and those hardened to conversion. Hardened become open again at a constant rate.
- Believers leave at a constant rate from the inactive class to the hardened.
Results
- In a population that is neither growing or declining there are two thresholds.
- A lower threshold, the extinction threshold, under which the church will decline to zero, but over which it will survive. This depends on loss rates of adults and children and the conversion rate, as measured by the enthusiast's reproduction potential.
- A higher threshold, the revival threshold, over which large scale "revival-type" growth occurs. This depends on the number of unbelievers in addition to the parameters above.
- In a growing population there are 2 lower thresholds, one under which the church declines to zero, and a higher one where the church survives but as a shrinking proportion of society.
It is easier for a church to survive in a growing population.
- In a growing population there are 2 higher thresholds, one over which the church will rapidly grow in numbers, but not as a fraction, and a higher one over which will grow rapidly even as a proportion of the growing population of society. It is easier to obtain revival type growth in a growing population.
- When a declining church sees an increase reproduction potential its subsequent growth is significantly delayed. 20-30 years is typical. Thus when a revival movement starts small it may be some time before its effects in reversing church decline are seen. Taking into account the age profile of congregations can make this delay longer.
- For a church over the extinction threshold there is an equilibrium number where conversion and births balance and reversion and deaths. However the timescale for this equilibrium to be achieved is many times a human lifetime. This is much longer than time over which the constant parameters of the system are constant
- As a church tends towards equilibrium its numbers tend to overshoot and decline a few times before equilibrium is achieved. Thus repeated phases of revival-type growth followed by decline can occur, giving the appearance of repeated revivals. However these "generational cycles" are due to people leaving the church, and births, replenishing the pool of unbelievers and are not due to changing spiritual conditions as would be expected in genuinely repeated revivals.
- In a declining church the fraction of enthusiasts can rise. Thus if an individual congregation sees their fractions of enthusiasts rise it is not necessarily a sign of revival growth. Indeed it may be a sign of the opposite. Enthusiasts must grow in numbers averaged across the whole church to indicate revival type growth.
- There are number of examples of denominations with revival type growth in the UK and USA, largely those of Pentecostal or Charismatic persuasion. There is thus some numerical evidence for spiritual awakening in some part so of the church. There are unfortunately far to many who indicate they are declining to extinction. These are largely denominations that have existed for many generations. Some denominations such as the Church of England, though declining, are showing signs that there may be be an underlying rise in enthusiasts indicating future growth, albeit slow.
- Go to Growth Results and Decline Results for more.
Return to Top
Limited Enthusiasm Model with Renewal
This model is an extension of the limited enthusiasm model above. Hayward (2010)
Additional Hypotheses
- Inactive believers can become enthusiastic again through contact with enthusiasts. This is the definition of renewal in the model.
- In small congregations the number of contacts between enthusiasts and inactive believers rises as the congregation size rises, increasing the likelihood of renewal. This saturates as the maximum friendship network size is reached among church friends. Thus for larger congregations the number of contacts is independent of congregation size.
- When the model is applied to larger church grouping such as a region, or denomination, it is assumed the average congregation size grow as the wider church grows and likewise declines as the wider church declines. Any variations in the relationship between the two for different churches, or between growth and decline, is captured by a density parameter. However, in reality Christians interested in renewal make contact with their counterparts in other congregations, thus the correlation between church size and church friendship network size is better than it first appears.
- The number of enthusiasts renewed by one enthusiast during their enthusiastic period is called their renewal potential. It is measured assuming the maximum friendship network size within church has been reached.
Results
- The change in numbers within church depends on the combination of both the reproduction and renewal potentials. A church can now generate enthusiasts through renewal and this can enhance the conversion growth.
- Renewal can prevent extinction. Churches whose conversion is so low it places them below the extinction threshold can be raised above it with sufficient renewal enhancing the number of enthusiasts and creating more conversions.
- Renewal promotes revival growth. A church with inadequate reproduction of enthusiasts from new converts can be tipped into revival growth with renewal.
- When revival growth that comes from renewal can be significantly delayed after the onset of renewal. There is thus a lengthy renewal period before revival growth sets in. When examining movements as candidates for revival, they should not be ruled out simply because the church is not growing or seeing mass conversions. The movement may be in a renewal phase and seeing enthusiasts made out of inactive believers. It is the rapid growth of enthusiasts not the number of conversions is the key indicator of a revival movement.
- A small change in the renewal potential can make a large difference in the growth of the church. It is renewal, not evangelism that is the key to church growth.
- A church must have a critical mass of enthusiasts, and congregation size, for renewal to tip it into growth. Larger churches are more likely to see the benefits of renewal in their growth. Enthusiasts are more effective if they gather in one congregation rather than being split between many. However meeting together in regular renewal meetings may be an effective alternative. Malachi 3:16 Then those who feared the LORD talked with each other, and the LORD listened and heard.
- Go to Renewal Results for more.
Return to Top
|
