Summary of Church Growth Modelling Project

Details of Models
Limited Enthusiasm
Births, Deaths & Reversion
Renewal
 
Details of Results
Summary of Results
Short Term Revival
Long Term Growth
Long Term Decline
Growth via Renewal
 
References & Bibliography 
Mathematics of Church Growth
Church Growth
Revival
System Dynamics
Sociology of Religion
Epidemics
Social Diffusion


Publications
Articles
Models for Download
Defence of Church Growth Modelling

Hypotheses

  • The faith is largely spread through enthusiasts, or "active" believers. These are active in recruitment distinguishing them from "inactive" believers who play little role in recruitment.  
  • Most conversion growth comes from contact between an enthusiast and an unbeliever. The numbers converted being proportional to the numbers of both.  
  • The enthusiastic phase of a believer only lasts a certain length of time, after which they become inactive  

 Results

  • There is a threshold over which large scale "revival-type" growth occurs. This depends on the number of unbelievers.  
  • The number of enthusiasts does not affect whether such substantial growth occurs. If there are smaller number enthusiasts the same growth occurs over as longer period..  
  • The threshold depends on the number of people converted per enthusiast. Thus it is the "amount of enthusiasm" that governs the growth.
  • Growth will end because the church runs out of enthusiasts, not because the number of unbelievers runs out. As people are converted enthusiasts are less likely to meet unconverted people, leading to a failure to make sufficient enthusiasts.  
  • It is more beneficial for growth to increase the effectiveness of enthusiasts than to increase their numbers. A small number of effective evangelisers are better than a large number of less effective ones.  
  • When the population of a church is small compared to the surrounding unbelieving society it can be a long time before a revival among believers can see significant growth in the church. 
  • In summary it is the spiritual vitality of the enthusiasts that drives the growth of the church. More life gives more growth, provided that life is directed into contact with unbelievers. Read Acts 2:42-47 & 4:12-16 for a Biblical understanding of this principle.  
  • Go to Summary of Results for more.

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