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Church Growth Modelling

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Modelling Church Growth using mathematics & computer simulation.

In 1904-5 Moriah chapel was the centre of massive church growth in Wales through a God-sent revival.

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John Hayward

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Social Dynamics Research


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Limits to Church Growth

However fast church congregations grow there comes a point where growth slows and eventually stops. What has limited its growth? Many suggestions are made: lack of physical resource, human resources stretched too far, complacency and too few enthusiasts. The latest models added to this webisite suggest that lack of supply of religion, and the inability to create demand for religion, will place barriers on church growth. Do churches just rely on society's demand for its services, rather than seeking out that demand, or better still, actively creating that demand? Read more...

Read latest blog on church growth barriers - lack of enthusiasts.

Welcome to the website of Church Growth Modelling. This is science website, so prepare to be challenged. Questions welcome. It is Christian website promoting revival, so prepare to be challenged spiritually!

Institutionalism & Church Growth

Institutionalism can contribute to church decline. For example if successful congregations have to make large contributions to denominational funds, then funding for their own growing ministry suffers at the expense of maintaining a wider, often ineffective, institutional agenda.

A simple system dynamics model shows that if church growth leads to institutionalism, then growth is undermined, decline sets in, and denominational extinction results. However, if institutionalism is tackled early enough, then this fate can be avoided. Denominations need to deregulate their congregations.

The Models - Quick Guide

Limited Enthusiasm Model.
Church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who alone are responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church.
Congregational Models.
Applied to the individual congregation only. Designed to assist church leaders.
Limits to Church Growth Models.
Models to illustrate barriers to church growth.
What is Church Growth?
The discipline that analyses why churches grow and decline.
Sociology, Methodology, Mathematics, Computer Simulation.
What's New?
Latest additions to website
Discipleship Results
Spiritual Life Model
Informal articles:
Revival in Nagaland
Eyam Plague
Limits to Church Growth - part 1 & part 2
Church Growth - It's a Disease!
Enthusiasts are "contagious Christians"
Revival threshold
extinction threshold
Limited Enthusiasm - Revival
Understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease.
Revival growth threshold - how a small number of enthusiasts can make a big difference.
Church of England Decline
Limited enthusiasm with demographics applied to Church of England attendance data
What will it take for the church to survive?

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Church Growth Modelling