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Church Growth Modelling

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Modelling Church Growth using mathematics & computer simulation.

In 1904-5 Moriah chapel was the centre of massive church growth in Wales through a God-sent revival.

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John Hayward

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Church Decline & Lack of Conversions

Most of the pre-1900 denominations in the UK declined through the 20th century, a pattern which continues to this day. By looking at the detailed figures for one such church, the Welsh Presbyterians, it can be shown that the primary cause of that decline is the significant drop in its conversion rate.

Although the falling national birth rate has had some effect on decline it can be shown that child retention by the church has remained around 50% and is not a contributory cause. Even emigration and two world wars only had temporary effects. The root cause of church decline is inadequate conversion into the church Read blog post...

Welcome to the website of Church Growth Modelling. This is a science website, so prepare to be challenged. Questions welcome. It is a Christian website promoting revival, so prepare to be challenged spiritually!

Resources Can Limit Church Growth

Let a congregation supply religion to its community through a resource generated by its members, e.g. Sunday School, social programmes, marriage preparation classes or pastoral support, to name but a few. The more resource, the more who join the church. However as many of these resources become increasingly complex the more they grow, they become harder to generate in proportion to the church size. The Bounded Resource model explores the limit to growth imposed by such resources. Read more ...

If resource generation is too low there is a danger a congregation can go extinct. There is minimum amount of work a church needs to do in order to survive. Doing nothing is a recipe for decline. Rising secularisation can cause churches to be less effective in resource generation, which may also tip a church to extinction. Read more ...

The Models - Quick Guide

Limited Enthusiasm Model.
Church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who alone are responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church.
Congregational Models.
Applied to the individual congregation only. Designed to assist church leaders.
Limits to Church Growth Models.
Models to illustrate barriers to church growth.
What is Church Growth?
The discipline that analyses why churches grow and decline.
Sociology, Methodology, Mathematics, Computer Simulation.
What's New?
Latest additions to website
Bounded Resource Model
Aging and Church Decline
Spiritual Life Model
Anglican Decline in the West
Informal articles:
Communicating the Gospel
Closing Rural Churches
Cowboys for Jesus Church
Anglican Church Decline
Church Growth - It's a Disease!
Enthusiasts are "contagious Christians"
Revival threshold
extinction threshold
Limited Enthusiasm - Revival
Understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease.
Revival growth threshold - how a small number of enthusiasts can make a big difference.
Church of England Decline
Limited enthusiasm with demographics applied to Church of England attendance data
What will it take for the church to survive?
Limits to Church Growth
What limits the growth of congregations? Lack of demand, lack of supply by the churches?
A variety of models to explore possible limits to church growth.
Limited enthusiasm with inactive believers renewed.
Renewal not evangelism is key to church growth. Critical mass.

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Church Growth Modelling