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Introduction
Church
growth modelling is a research project that attempts to understand
the numerical growth and decline of the Christian Church using
mathematics and system dynamics.
The
models give valuable insights into the way the churches grow
or decline at either a congregational, denominational, national
or international level. They are particularly helpful in describing
the dynamics of growth in times of revival.
The
research is based in the Division of Mathematics & Statistics
at the University
of Glamorgan, Wales UK. A condensed version of this work,
aimed at the academic audience, is accessible from the division's
church growth research
page.
This
web site is aimed at those in the Christian church interested
in the insights such models give on the numerical and spiritual
growth of the church. Some important results are summarised below
and on the Results Summary
page.
An article explaining the principles and results using tipping points is a useful introduction to the work.
Contact:
John Hayward
or
via the Church Growth Modelling
web page at Glamorgan
A Blog contains short articles and commentaries on the project.
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Moriah Chapel,
Loughor, near Swansea, South Wales.
One
of the starting places of the 1904-5 revival in Wales and home
church of revivalist Evan Roberts.
A
revival is a sovereign work of God, giving new life to Christians.
It leads to the conversion of many unbelievers and the transformation
of communities.
- How
Did the Welsh Revival of 1904-5 Start?
- Timeline of the Background to 1904-5 Welsh Revival
- Timeline of the
First Two Weeks of the Welsh Revival
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What is Church Growth?
It
is the discipline that seeks to analyse why Christian churches,
at various levels of organisation, grow or decline. This includes
both their spiritual growth as well as their numerical growth.
Church
growth thinking
can be divided into two strands:
The
Church Growth Movement, which is based with Christian
denominations and exists to serve their needs. It is based on
theological principles.
The
Social Science Strand whose focus is primarily academic
research and has a sociological basis.
Both
strands use data gathering and statistical analysis to understand
the nature of quantitative church growth.
What
is Church Growth Modelling?
It
is an attempt to understand the dynamics of church growth using
mathematics and system dynamics methods.
Its
aims are:
- to
produce theories of how churches grow, in the sense of why the
numbers of people in churches change the way they do;
- to
discover broad principles that describe the growth;
- to
provide a theoretical framework that can assess strategies of
church growth;
- to
help decide what sort of data should be gathered to best reflect
a church's effectiveness;
It
involves the use population modelling, simulation, and has overlap
with theories of social diffusion and particularly its applications
in marketing.
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The Models
- Limited Enthusiasm Model. Church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who are alone responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church. However believers are only enthusiasts for a limited period after their conversion. Only new believers become enthusiasts. A good basic model of revival growth. Results. Application to revival.
- Limited Enthusiasm with Births Deaths and Reversion. As above but with as births, deaths, people leaving church and perhaps rejoining at a latter date. Useful for analysing the long term survival of denominations and congregations. Growth results. Decline results.
- Renewal Model. As above but enthusiasts can also be made out of existing inactive believers. Models a range of renewal movements that start within the church and shows that such renewal is the key to seeing revival growth in the church. Results.
- Strictness Model. Explores the effect that the strictness of a church has on the growth of the church encapsulating Kelley's thesis that strict churches are strong and hence grow, but lenient ones are weaker and more likely to decline. Strictness can include loyalty to fundamental beliefs. Model is still in development. See "A Dynamical Model of Strictness and its Effect on Church Growth 2002".
- Congregational Lifecycle Model. A model of a single congregation rather than a denomination or the whole church, linking the activity of church members and their ability to build "spiritual capital" as a resource to aid growth. Predicts the eventual slow decline of the church due to complacency and the need to spend more time on maintaining the resource and less on recruitment. Model is still in development. Outlined in "Modelling Church Growth- Micro and Macro Models".
- Effective Believers Model. An extension to the limited enthusiasm model where their effectiveness depends on the production of spiritual activity. Explains the dynamics of how dying churches can be turned to living and growing ones through enthusiasts engaging in activities that bring spiritual life. Model is still in development.
- Church and Society Model. An attempt to build current sociological theories such as secularisation, neo-secularisation and the new paradigm into a dynamic model and explore their relative effects. This acts as a useful macro-sociological comparison with the other micro-sociological models based on the activities of groups of people. Model is still in development.
- Church Planting. Extension of the limited enthusiasm model to include church planting strategies . Shows that growth in new churches can burn out due to a lack of enthusiasts rather than a lack of places to plant. Model is still in development.
Models that are currently be developed will have their details added to the website as results are subject to peer review. Return to Top
Summary of Limited Enthusiasm Model
Central Hypotheses
- The
faith is largely spread through enthusiasts, or "active"
believers. These are active in recruitment distinguishing them
from "inactive" believers who play little role in recruitment.
- Most
conversion growth comes from contact between an enthusiast and
an unbeliever. The numbers converted being proportional to the
numbers of both.
- The
enthusiastic phase of a believer only lasts a certain length
of time, after which they become inactive.
Key Results
- There
is a threshold over which large scale "revival-type"
growth occurs. This depends on the number of unbelievers.
- The
number of enthusiasts does not affect whether such substantial
growth occurs. If there are smaller number enthusiasts the same
growth occurs over as longer period.
- The
threshold depends on the number of people converted per enthusiast. Thus
it is the "amount of enthusiasm" that governs the growth.
- Growth
will end because the church runs out of enthusiasts, not
because the number of unbelievers runs out. As people are converted
enthusiasts are less likely to meet unconverted people, leading
to a failure to make sufficient enthusiasts.
- It
is more beneficial for growth to increase the effectiveness
of enthusiasts than to increase their numbers. A small number
of effective evangelisers are better than a large number of less
effective ones.
- When
the population of a church is small compared to the surrounding
unbelieving society it can be a long time before a revival among
believers can see significant growth in the church.
- In
summary it is the spiritual vitality of the enthusiasts that
drives the growth of the church. More life gives more growth,
provided that life is directed into contact with unbelievers.
Read
Acts 2:42-47 & 4:12-16 for a Biblical understanding of this
principle.
- Go
to Summary of Results for more.
Return to Top
Contact Details
Postal
and phone contact is via the Division of Mathematics and Statistics
at the University of Glamorgan, details at personal page.
email:
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