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Church Growth Modelling

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Modelling Church Growth using mathematics & computer simulation.

In 1904-5 Moriah chapel was the centre of massive church growth in Wales through a God-sent revival.

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John Hayward

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Social Dynamics Research


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Resources Can Limit Church Growth

Let a congregation supply religion to its community through a resource generated by its members, e.g. Sunday School, social programmes, marriage preparation classes or pastoral support, to name but a few. The more resource, the more who join the church. However as many of these resources become increasingly complex the more they grow, they become harder to generate in proportion to the church size. The Bounded Resource model explores the limit to growth imposed by such resources. Read more ...

Welcome to the website of Church Growth Modelling. This is a science website, so prepare to be challenged. Questions welcome. It is a Christian website promoting revival, so prepare to be challenged spiritually!

Anglican Church Decline

The Anglican Church, once a key institution in the English-speaking world, has suffered decline for over half a century. Although in both the UK and North America there are many examples of growing and lively Anglican churches, as national denominations the trend is downwards. However the Church of England is declining slower than other western Anglican denominations such as the Church in Wales, Scottish Episcopal Church and US Episcopal Church. Read blog for an analysis of the data. See also Aging and Church Decline.

Why is the Church of England declining more slowly? What can the other three denominations learn? Reasons are suggested connected with establishment, lack of uniformity, theology and openness to revival. It is suggested that it is primarily internal factors in the churches, not external factors, that gives the smaller sister denominations the steeper decline.

The Models - Quick Guide

Limited Enthusiasm Model.
Church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who alone are responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church.
Congregational Models.
Applied to the individual congregation only. Designed to assist church leaders.
Limits to Church Growth Models.
Models to illustrate barriers to church growth.
What is Church Growth?
The discipline that analyses why churches grow and decline.
Sociology, Methodology, Mathematics, Computer Simulation.
What's New?
Latest additions to website
Bounded Resource Model
Aging and Church Decline
Spiritual Life Model
Informal articles:
Revival in Nagaland
Cowboys for Jesus Church
Institutionalism & Church Growth
Church Growth - It's a Disease!
Enthusiasts are "contagious Christians"
Revival threshold
extinction threshold
Limited Enthusiasm - Revival
Understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease.
Revival growth threshold - how a small number of enthusiasts can make a big difference.
Church of England Decline
Limited enthusiasm with demographics applied to Church of England attendance data
What will it take for the church to survive?
Limits to Church Growth
What limits the growth of congregations? Lack of demand, lack of supply by the churches?
A variety of models to explore possible limits to church growth.
Limited enthusiasm with inactive believers renewed.
Renewal not evangelism is key to church growth. Critical mass.

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Church Growth Modelling