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Church Growth Modelling

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Modelling Church Growth using mathematics & computer simulation.

In 1904-5 Moriah chapel was the centre of massive church growth in Wales through a God-sent revival.


Modelling Church Growth using mathematics and computer simulation. More...

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John Hayward

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Social Dynamics Research


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Welcome To New Website

The church growth modelling project has redesigned its website. If you have been here before you will find familiar church growth models using mathematics and system dynamics, re-presented in an easier format. If you are new then please browse around and see how models can help understanding the growth and decline of the church and help its mission.

This is science website, so prepare to be challenged. Questions welcome. It is Christian website promoting revival, so prepare to be challenged spiritually!

Institutionalism & Church Growth

Institutionalism can contribute to church decline. For example if successful congregations have to make large contributons to denominational funds, then funding for their own growing ministry suffers at the expense of maintaining a wider, often ineffective, institutional agenda.
A simple system dynamics model shows that if church growth leads to institutionalism, then growth is undermined, decline sets in, and denominational extinction results. However, if institutionalism is tackled early enough, then this fate can be avoided. Denominations need to deregulate their congregations.

The Models - Quick Guide

Limited Enthusiasm Model.
Church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who alone are responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church.
Congregational Models.
Applied to the individual congregation only. Designed to assist church leaders.
What is Church Growth?
The discipline that analyses why churches grow and decline.
Sociology, Methodology, Mathematics, Computer Simulation.
What's New?
Latest additions to website
-- Discipleship Results
-- Spiritual Life Model
Informal articles:
-- Revival in Nagaland
-- Eyam Plague
-- Limits to Church Growth
Church Growth - It's a Disease!
Enthusiasts are "contagious Christians"
Revival threshold
extinction threshold
Limited Enthusiasm - Revival
Understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease.
Revival growth threshold - how a small number of enthusiasts can make a big difference.
Church of England Decline
Limited enthusiasm with demographics applied to Church of England attendance data
What will it take for the church to survive?

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Church Growth Modelling