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Church Growth Modelling

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Modelling Church Growth using mathematics & computer simulation.

In 1904-5 Moriah chapel was the centre of massive church growth in Wales through a God-sent revival.

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John Hayward

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Social Dynamics Research


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Anglican Church Decline

The Anglican Church, once a key institution in the English-speaking world, has suffered decline for over half a century. Although in both the UK and North America there are many examples of growing and lively Anglican churches, as national denominations the trend is downwards. However the Church of England is declining slower than other western Anglican denominations. Why? Read latest blog for an analysis...

Welcome to the website of Church Growth Modelling. This is a science website, so prepare to be challenged. Questions welcome. It is a Christian website promoting revival, so prepare to be challenged spiritually!

Institutionalism & Church Growth

Institutionalism can contribute to church decline. For example if successful congregations have to make large contributions to denominational funds, then funding for their own growing ministry suffers at the expense of maintaining a wider, often ineffective, institutional agenda.

A simple system dynamics model shows that if church growth leads to institutionalism, then growth is undermined, decline sets in, and denominational extinction results. However, if institutionalism is tackled early enough, then this fate can be avoided. Denominations need to deregulate their congregations.

The Models - Quick Guide

Limited Enthusiasm Model.
Church grows through the activity of enthusiasts who alone are responsible for the recruitment/conversion of unbelievers into the church.
Congregational Models.
Applied to the individual congregation only. Designed to assist church leaders.
Limits to Church Growth Models.
Models to illustrate barriers to church growth.
What is Church Growth?
The discipline that analyses why churches grow and decline.
Sociology, Methodology, Mathematics, Computer Simulation.
What's New?
Latest additions to website
Discipleship Results
Spiritual Life Model
Informal articles:
Revival in Nagaland
Eyam Plague
Limits to Church Growth - part 1 & part 2
Church Growth - It's a Disease!
Enthusiasts are "contagious Christians"
Revival threshold
extinction threshold
Limited Enthusiasm - Revival
Understanding the dynamics of revival by analogy with the spread of a disease.
Revival growth threshold - how a small number of enthusiasts can make a big difference.
Church of England Decline
Limited enthusiasm with demographics applied to Church of England attendance data
What will it take for the church to survive?
Limits to Church Growth
What limits the growth of congregations? Lack of demand, lack of supply by the churches?
A variety of models to explore possible limits to church growth.
Limited enthusiasm with inactive believers renewed.
Renewal not evangelism is key to church growth. Critical mass.

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Church Growth Modelling