Systems Dynamics References & Bibliography
Systems Dynamics Bibliography Books Papers   Details of Models Limited Enthusiasm  Births, Deaths & Reversion  Renewal   Details of Results Summary of Results Short Term Revival  Long Term Growth Long Term Decline Growth via Renewal   References & Bibliography  Mathematics of Church Growth Church Growth  Revival  System Dynamics  Sociology of Religion Epidemics  Social Diffusion Publications Articles	What is Systems Dynamics? Systems dynamics is a modelling methodology whose power lies in understanding complex situations through cause and effect. Invented at MIT in 1961, it has seen much success in modelling the environment, business dynamics and social situations. A systems dynamics model is built by making assumptions, with their consequences explored using a range of mathematical methods including computer simulation. It is not always possible to predict future changes accurately as there are too many unpredictable factors such as birth rates. However it is possible to establish principles that govern the way change occurs in given situations. These principles enable the causes of growth and decline to be understood as well as suggesting strategies to maximise growth. It is, therefore, an ideal method for studying church growth, given the proviso that God "continues to act the same way." He can sovereignly change situations (represented by the parameters of the model) at any time in ways that no model can predict. Books Forrester J.W. (1961),Industrial Dynamics, Pegasus Comm. Inc. Meadows D. H. 1991. The Global Citizen. Washington DC: Island Press. Meadows D. H., Meadows D.L. and Randers J. (1992), Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning A Sustainable Future. Post Mills VT: Chelsea Green. Senge P.M. (1990), The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Random House Business Books. . Sterman J.D.. (2000), Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, MacGraw Hill. Wolstenholme P.M. (1990), System Enquiry: A Systems Dynamics Approach, John Wiley and Sons. Return to Top Papers The following are particularly relevant to the models used in church growth: Dangerfield B. & Roberts C. (1999), Optimisation as a statistical estimation tool: An example in estimating the AIDS treatment-free incubation period distribution, System Dynamics Review 15: (3) 273-291. Forrester J. W. (1987), Fourteen 'Obvious Truths'. System Dynamics Review 3 (2): 156-159. Homer J. B. (1987), A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving Medical Technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 31 (3): 197-218. Richardson G.P. (1997),Problems in Causal Loop Diagrams Revisited, Systems Dynamics Review, 13(3), 247-252.. Return to Top