Church Growth Modelling

Journal Publications - Church Growth

• A General Model of Church Growth and Decline. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 29(3), 177-207, 2005. The definitive version of the Limited Enthusiasm Model.
• A Dynamical Model of Church Growth and its Application to Contemporary Revivals. Review of Religious Research, 43(3),218-241, March 2002. A revised version of the paper at the Houston 2000 conference below.
• Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth, Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 23(4), 255-292, 1999. An updated version of the paper in the light of more recent work in System Dynamics. Original in journal. See also System Dynamics version.
• Explanatory Notes on "Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth, 2000. A non-mathematicians guide for the above paper.

Conferences - Church Growth

• The Growth of Islam in the UK: A System Dynamics Perspective. Presented at "The Annual Meeting of the Scientific Study of Religion", Indianapolis, USA, November, 2014. An application of the Limited Enthusiasm Model of Church Growth to Islam in England & Wales.
• System Dynamics: A Tool for Investigating Church and Religious Growth. Presented at "The Annual Meeting of the Scientific Study of Religion", Boston, USA, November, 2013. Powerpoint slides. How to build a church growth model in system dynamics; applications to Church of England and Southern Baptist Convention data; modelling the effects of church strictness.
• Church Growth via Enthusiasts and Renewal. Presented at the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South Korea, July 2010. A model where enthusiasts are generated through renewing existing believers in addition to conversion. Model displays accelerated growth and critical mass.
• An Introduction to Model Building in System Dynamics. May 2010. Powerpoint presentation. Developed as part of a series on building church growth models hosted by the Cymru Institute for Contemporary Christianity,
• Effective Evangelisation. Presented at "Challenge to Change: exploring strategies for an effective Church in a post-Christian landscape", June 2009.
• Modelling Church Growth - Micro and Macro Models. Presented at various meetings: COST MP0801 WG1 Competition of Beliefs, Paderborn, Germany, Jan 2009; Wales Mathematics Colloquium, Gregynog Wales, May 2008; SD+50, London School of Economics, December, 2007.
• Church Growth via Enthusiasts. Presented at OR46 "The Annual Conference of the Operational Research Society", York, 7-9 September, 2004.
• Revival or Extinction - An Application of Systems Dynamics to Church Attendance and Membership Data. Report, presented at "The Annual Meeting of the Religious Research Association / Scientific Study of Religion", Salt Lake City, Utah 1-3 November, 2002.
• A Dynamical Model of Strictness and its Effect on Church Growth. Report, presented at "The Annual Meeting of the Religious Research Association / Scientific Study of Religion", Salt Lake City, Utah 1-3 November, 2002.
• A Dynamical Model of Church Growth and Global Revival. Technical Report UG-M-00-4, presented at "The Annual Meeting for the Scientific Study of Religion", Houston, Texas 18-21 October 2000.
• Growth and Decline of Religious and Sub-cultural Groups. Presented at the 18th International System Dynamics Society, Bergen, Norway, July 2000.

Technical Reports

• Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth: A System Dynamics Approach. arXiv repository: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08482 2018 (1999). A revision of the 1999 paper using system dynamics to construct and analyse the model.
• Modelling Church Growth: A Systems Approach, Part 1. Introduction to Church Growth, Systems Dynamics and the Unlimited Enthusiasm Church Growth Model, Technical Report UG-M-00-1, 2001.
• Modelling Church Growth: A Systems Approach, Part 2. The Unlimited Enthusiasm Church Growth Model with Births, Deaths and Reversion, Technical Report UG-M-00-2, 2001.
• Modelling Church Growth: A Systems Approach, Part 3. The Limited Enthusiasm Church Growth Model with Births, Deaths and Reversion, Technical Report UG-M-00-3, 2001.
• Introduction to Systems Dynamics. 2001. For those not familiar with the methodology.
• Mathematical Modelling of Church Growth. Technical Report, UG-M-95-3, 1995. The first report on the Limited Enthusiasm Model.

Popular Publications

• Church Growth and Spiritual Life. (with L Howells.) Future First. April 2011, published by Brierley Consultancy.
• Can the Church be Tipped into Growth? Quadrant May 2006, published by Christian Research.
• Passing on the Faith. Quadrant March 2002, published by Christian Research.
• Modelling Church Growth - Mathematically, Church Growth Digest, 23(1) pp.3-5, 2001. British Church Growth Association.
• Church Growth - A Disease!! Quadrant September 2000, published by Christian Research.

Non-Church Growth Publications and Conferences

• Polojärvi D.I., Gambardella P. & Hayward J. (2020). Understanding Evolutionary Societal Decision-making for Sustainable Social Systems Engineering Purposes. In INCOSE International Symposium (Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 981-1000).
• Hayward J., Jeffs R.A. & Roach P.A. (2020). A Supply and Demand Model of Political Party Growth. Presented at the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Virtual Bergen, July 2020.
• Hayward J. & Roach P.A.. (2019). The concept of force in population dynamics, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 531, 121736, DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.121736.
• Gambardella P., Hayward J., Palmer E. & Polojärvi D.I. (2018) , Approximating Network Dynamics in the Classic Maya Collapse, Presented at the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Reykjavík, Iceland, August 2018.
• Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2018). An application of an analogue of the partition function to the evolution of diglossia, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 516,.447-463.. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.10.047.
• Hayward J. & Roach P.A. (2017). Newton's Laws as an Interpretive Framework in System Dynamics. System Dynamics Review, 33(3-4), 183-218. DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1586.
• Jeffs R.A., Hayward J., Roach P.A. & Wyburn J. (2016). Activist Model of Political Party Growth. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 442, 359-372. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.002; arXiv:1509.07805. Physica A.
• Hayward J. (2015). Newton’s Laws of System Dynamics. Presented at the 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, MA, July 2015.
• Hayward J. & Boswell G.P. (2014). Model Behaviour and the Concept of Loop Impact: A Practical Method. System Dynamics Review, 30(1), 29-57. DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1511
• Hayward J., Jeffs R.A., Howells L. & Evans K.S. (2014). Model Building with Soft Variables: A Case Study on Riots. Presented at the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, Netherlands, July 2014. Poster version
• Hayward J. (2012). Model Behavior and the Strengths of Causal Loops: Mathematical Insights and a Practical Method. Presented at the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, July 2012. A method for identifying understanding dominant feedback/causal loops which can be applied to church growth models.
• Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2010). A Model of Language-Group Interaction and Evolution Including Language Acquisition Planning, Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 34(3), 167-200.
• Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2009). OR and Language Planning: Modelling The Interaction Between Unilingual and Bilingual Populations, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(5), 626-636.
• Wyburn J. & Hayward J. (2008). The Future of Bilingualism: An Application of the Baggs and Freedman Model , Journal of Mathematical Sociology 32(4), 267-284. Uses similar ideas to the church growth models.